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 JL MAG Rare-Earth Industry Price Briefing 05-13~05-17

Week 20, 2019

1.重要新聞簡報Briefing of Important News

本周稀土市場行情，鐠釹價格保持平穩(wěn)，鏑鐵和鋱價格繼續(xù)上漲。 亞洲金屬網(wǎng)價格: 鐠釹金屬價格334-339元/KG (上海有色，335-340元/KG)，鏑鐵合金價格1590-1610元/KG (上海有色，1620-1650元/KG)，金屬鋱價格4130-4180元/KG (上海有色，4280-4350元/KG)。

This week, prices of PrNd kept stable while DyFe and Tb kept increasing. Price from Asian Metal at this weekend presented: PrNd metal 334-339 RMB/KG (price from SMM: 335-340 RMB/KG), DyFe alloy 1590-1610 RMB/KG (price from SMM: 1620-1650 RMB/KG), and Tb metal 4130-4180 RMB/KG (price from SMM: 4280-4350 RMB/KG).

2.業(yè)內(nèi)人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders

2019年5月14日24點(diǎn)，云南騰沖與緬甸邊境關(guān)口進(jìn)行封關(guān)，禁止所有稀土業(yè)務(wù)相關(guān)商品進(jìn)行進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易。目前已確認(rèn)，關(guān)口已封，不接受任何稀土相關(guān)商品的報關(guān)，稀土礦已經(jīng)無法從緬甸出口到中國。

At 12PM on May 14, 2019, Tengchong, Yunnan closed the border with Myanmar and banned the import and export of all rare earth business-related commodities. It has been confirmed that the pass has been sealed, and customs declaration of any rare earth related commodities is not acceptable. Rare earth minerals can no longer be exported from Myanmar to China.

2018年緬甸進(jìn)口稀土礦2.58萬噸，核算稀土氧化物將近2.3萬噸，對應(yīng)氧化鏑產(chǎn)量在860噸左右，氧化鋱產(chǎn)量在130噸左右，占國內(nèi)鏑鋱產(chǎn)量40%。而就當(dāng)前形勢判斷，封關(guān)至少造成本年度有兩萬噸稀土難以進(jìn)口到中國，鏑的產(chǎn)量下降800噸，鋱產(chǎn)下降120噸，鏑鋱供需格局變化，將導(dǎo)致中重稀土價格上漲。

In 2018, Myanmar imported 25,800 tons of rare earth minerals, accounting for nearly 23,000 tons of rare earth oxides, corresponding to Dy oxide production of 860 tons and Tb oxide production of 130 tons, accounting for 40% of domestic Dy and Tb production. Judging by the current situation, at least 20,000 tons of rare earths will be difficult to import into China this year due to the closure. Dy production will drop by 800 tons and Tb production will drop by 120 tons.

整體供需依舊處于平衡或者緊張的格局，所以商家對后市更多的持樂觀看漲心態(tài)。利好還是大于利空，存在的供應(yīng)短缺問題短時間難以解決。中重稀土價格將會繼續(xù)上漲，很難出現(xiàn)短期快速拉漲的趨勢，商家的提價模式應(yīng)該是到達(dá)一個臺階穩(wěn)定一段時間，繼續(xù)上漲，如此價格上漲趨勢更合理。（百川資訊杜帥兵）

Overall supply and demand is still in a balance or tense pattern, so businesses are in optimistic bullish mentality for future market. Boon is more than negative, the existing supply shortage problem is difficult to solve in a short time. The price of medium and heavy rare earths will continue to rise, and it is difficult to see a short-term trend of rapid increase. The price increase mode of merchants should reach a stable level for a period of time and continue to rise, so that the price rise trend is more reasonable. (Baiinfo Shuaibing)

中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)對美國稀土礦有一定影響，對中國稀土產(chǎn)業(yè)影響較小。稀土及釹鐵硼并不在美國的加稅清單中，因此中國對美國出口不受影響。但，中方的反制美國加稅清單中包含稀土產(chǎn)品。據(jù)悉美國礦原來準(zhǔn)備擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)能，計(jì)劃今年出口至中國5萬噸稀土原礦，目前一季度已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)出口至中國5440噸。如果6月1日過后，中國正式實(shí)施25%的進(jìn)口關(guān)稅的話，預(yù)計(jì)美國礦投資方可能會面臨著10%的虧損，因此不排除美國礦會面臨減產(chǎn)甚至停產(chǎn)的命運(yùn)。（瑞道金屬網(wǎng)）

The trade war between China and USA will have some impact on the American rare earth mines, but less on China's rare earth industry. Rare earths and NdFeB are not on the U.S. tax increase list, so Chinese exports to the U.S. are unaffected. However, China's list of countervailing U.S. tax increases includes rare earth products. It is reported that the U.S. mine originally planned to expand its production capacity and planned to export 50,000 tons of raw rare earth minerals to China this year. So far, it has exported 5,440 tons of rare earth minerals to China in the first quarter. If China formally imposes a 25% import tariff after June 1st, U.S. mine investors are expected to face a 10% loss, so a cut or even shutdown of U.S. mines cannot be ruled out. (Raydow metal)

北方稀土高科技股份有限公司發(fā)布5月稀土產(chǎn)品掛牌價格

Listing price in May from China Northern Rare Earth High-tech Co., Ltd.

南方稀土發(fā)布5月13日稀土氧化物掛牌價

Listing price on May 13th from China Southern Rare Earth

3.趨勢圖（參考亞洲金屬網(wǎng)）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)

2019年5月17日

May 17, 2019

提示：以上信息僅供參考！

Notes: the information above is for reference only!