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當前位置：金力永磁稀土行情簡報1646期（總第162期）11-28~12-02
JL MAG Rare-earth Industry Price Briefing 11-28~12-02
2016年第49周
Week 49, 2016
1.重要新聞簡報Briefing of Important News
本周稀土市場金屬鐠釹和鏑鐵價格均有小幅上漲，鋱價格相對穩(wěn)定。亞洲金屬網價格:鐠釹金屬322-327元/KG，鏑鐵合金價格1245-1265元/KG，鋱金屬價格3900-3950元/KG。
This week the price of PrNd and DyFe in the rare earth market had a slight increase while Tb was relatively stable. The price at weekend from Asia metal presented as: PrNd 322-327 RMB/KG, DyFe 1245-1265 RMB/KG and Tb metal 3900-3950 RMB/KG.
2.業(yè)內人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders
在經過今年前三季度的低迷以后，11月下旬開始，稀土市場逐漸表現(xiàn)出走強的意愿，部分產品價格有所回升。此次價格出現(xiàn)反彈是繼5月底進行商儲后的一次。雖然中間多次因為召開收儲會議而出現(xiàn)上漲的苗頭，但都由于收儲會議的無果而終沒能實現(xiàn)反彈，此次價格反彈也是多種因素綜合作用下的結果。
After the downturn in the first three quarters of this year, the rare earth market gradually begins to show a willingness to be strong in late November with price rose of some products. It is the first time that price rebound after the commercial reserve at the end of May. Although there's rising signs repeatedly because of reserve meeting, it ultimately failed to achieve a rebound as no conclusion has made in the storage meeting and the rebound is the result under comprehensive effects.
分離廠停產的可能性加大。11月15日，五礦稀土確定了集中生產的經營方案，有針對性的安排所屬企業(yè)復產與生產調整。根據往年的經驗來看，臨近年底，在各個企業(yè)的冶煉分離指標都基本用完的情況下，其他大企業(yè)也很有可能會緊隨五礦稀土的腳步，宣布各自旗下分離企業(yè)全部或部分停產的計劃，如此一來，市場上稀土產品供應將會減少。
First is the bigger possibility of separation plant discontinued. On November 15th, Minmetals rare earth ultimately determined the concentration production management plan, targeted arrange the owned enterprises to resume production and adjustment of production. Based on past experience, near the end of the year, the index of smelting separation for each enterprise basically run out of the situation, the other big companies are also likely to follow the footsteps of Minmetals rare earth, announced the discontinued production plan of all or part of their separation enterprise, so that the supply of rare earth products in the market will be reduced.
其次，人民幣兌美元的匯率持續(xù)下跌，有利于稀土產品出口。據中國海關數據顯示，2016年1~10月，中國稀土的出口總量為38435噸，同比增長43.7%，今年前10個月，稀土出口量同比增長除了正常的需求以及取消出口配額和關稅以外，匯率的持續(xù)下跌也起到了一定的促進作用。
Second, the RMB against the USD continued to fall, which is conducive to the export of rare earth products. The customs data shows that from January to October 2016, China total exports of rare earth was 38,435 tons with an increase of 43.7%. The first 10 months of this year, exports growth is not only because of the normal demand and the abolition of export quotas & the tariff, the continued decline in the exchange rate also played a certain role in promoting.
稀土收儲預期加強。近期幾家稀土大企業(yè)動作頻頻，從市場各方面反饋的消息來看，近期關于稀土收儲的會議或許會重啟，此次會議各方就價格問題達成一致的可能性比較大，稀土收儲的預期在增加，但無論結果如何，在收儲信息的帶動下，市場肯定會出現(xiàn)波動。大部分企業(yè)在經歷了全年的虧損后，稀土收儲將成為企業(yè)扭虧為盈的重要舉措，因此，主要稀土企業(yè)都樂于推動收儲工作盡快啟動，特別是一些業(yè)績仍然虧損的上市公司更為積極主動。隨著稀土收儲的預期不斷增強，業(yè)內商家也減少出貨，稀土產品供應相對比較緊張。
Finally, rare earth reserve is expected to be strengthened. Recently several large rare earth enterprise act frequently, feedback from various aspects of the market news, a purchasing and storage of rare earth meeting may restart recently, the possibility of the parties to reach an agreement on a price is relatively large, the purchasing and storage expectation is increasing, but no matter what the result is, the market will certainly fluctuate driven by the information of storage. Most of the enterprises had gone through the loss of this year and the purchasing and storage of rare earth will become the important measure for the enterprises to turn losses into gains, therefore, major rare earth enterprises are willing to promote the starting of purchasing and storage work as soon as possible, especially the performance of some listed companies with deficit. With rare earth purchasing and storage expectation increased, some merchants also reduce shipments and rare earth products supply is relatively tight now.
在停產、收儲、美聯(lián)儲加息、人民幣匯率下跌、商家囤貨等多種因素的刺激下，稀土價格在11月中下旬出現(xiàn)了一次小幅上漲，鐠釹、鏑、鋱等部分產品的價格開始反彈，詢價有所增加，但還是比較有限。未來一段時間內，稀土產品價格將回升至什么程度以及能夠保持多長時間，業(yè)內還是持悲觀態(tài)度者較多，因此，此次價格反彈的幅度和持續(xù)的時間仍然不容。
By the stimulation of a variety of factors such as discontinued production, purchasing and storage, US Federal Reserve hike, RMB exchange rate fell, businesses stockpile, etc., there has been a slight increase for rare earth prices at the end of November, PrNd, Dy, Tb and other parts of the product prices began to rebound as well as the enquiries, but the turnover is still relatively limited. The next coming period, what extents will the price of rare earth products rise and how long can remain is still a question. The insiders are still more pessimistic, so the price rebound magnitude and the duration of time is still not optimistic.
3.趨勢圖（參考亞洲金屬網）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)
2016年12月02日
Dec. 2nd,2016
提示：以上信息僅供參考！
Notes: the information above is for reference only!
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