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JL MAG Rare-Earth Industry Price Briefing 01-13~01-17

Week 3, 2020

1.     重要新聞簡報Briefing of Important News

本周稀土市場行情，鐠釹，鏑鐵和鋱的價格相對穩(wěn)定。亞洲金屬網(wǎng)周末價格: 鐠釹金屬價格355-360元/KG，金屬釹價格367-372元/KG，鏑鐵合金價格1670-1690元/KG，金屬鋱價格4480-4530元/KG。

This week, price of PrNd, DyFe and Tb is relatively stable. Price from Asian Metal at the weekend presented: PrNd metal 355-360 RMB/KG, Nd metal 367-372 RMB/KG, DyFe 1,670-1,690 RMB/KG and Tb metal 4,480-4,530 RMB/KG.

據(jù)海關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計，2019年12月份，我國共出口稀土產(chǎn)品3657.3噸, 同比下降32.54%。12月份稀土產(chǎn)品出口均價7.68USD/kg，同比下降6.61%。2019年全年累計出口稀土總量為46330.4噸，相較于2018年，出口數(shù)量下滑12.6%；年度出口均價9.50Usd/kg,同比下降2.07%。

According to customs statistics, in December 2019, China exported a total of 3657.3 tons of rare earth products, a year-on-year decrease of 32.54%. The average export price of rare earth products in December was 7.68USD / kg, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61%. The total accumulated exports in 2019 was 4,6330.4 tons, compared with 2018, the number of exports fell by 12.6%, the average annual export price was 9.50USD/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 2.07%.

2.       業(yè)內(nèi)人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders

本周是稀土市場節(jié)前備貨掃尾，因稀土物流在15日左右停運，大部分生產(chǎn)企業(yè)已在上周完成備貨，本周僅有少量省內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨成交及部分節(jié)后期貨預(yù)定。受成交靜態(tài)影響，上游企業(yè)報價大多維持不變，市場整體走勢保持平衡。

This week is the tailing-up of the rare earth market before the holiday. Due to the outage of the logistics around the 15th, most manufacturers have completed the stocking last week. This week, only a small amount of spot transactions in the province and some post-holiday futures are scheduled. Affected by the static status of the transaction, most of the quotations of upstream companies remained unchanged, and the overall market trend remained balanced.

1月16日，中美簽署第一輪貿(mào)易協(xié)定，中方將擴大自美進口量，清單中包含了稀土金屬、釤、釔，然而美國目前雖有稀土資源但暫無稀土金屬產(chǎn)能，且自美進口稀土金屬礦加稅尚未改變。部分業(yè)內(nèi)人士分析，美為避免中國稀土掣肘近年來對本土稀土扶持及其他各國稀土產(chǎn)品的拉攏十分頻繁，但中方始終沒有明確表態(tài)會限制對美稀土出口，若后續(xù)稀土出口保持正常，美國對新興稀土勢力的扶持必然削弱，失去政治的扶持將逐步轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槭袌鼋?jīng)濟從而產(chǎn)生價格競爭，美國影響下產(chǎn)生的新興稀土產(chǎn)業(yè)必然承受中國龐大成熟的稀土產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈強勢絞殺，而將稀土金屬納入采購清單，無疑是美國為自己后續(xù)撤力的可能留好后路。

On January 16th, China and the United States signed the first round of trade agreement. China will expand its imports from the United States. The list includes rare earth metals, Sm and Yt. Although the United States currently has rare earth resources, it has no rare earth metal production capacity. The tax increase on imported rare earth metal ore has not changed. Some industry analysts have analyzed that in order to avoid the constraints of China’s rare earth, the United States has attracted local rare earth support and other rare earth products in recent years. However, China has never made a clear statement that it will restrict the export of rare earth to the United States. The support of the rare earth power will inevitably weaken, and the loss of political support will gradually transform into a market economy and generate price competition. The emerging rare earth industry generated under the influence of the United States will inevitably withstand the strong strangulation of China's large and mature rare earth industry chain and include rare earth metals in the purchase list. It is no doubt that the United States has set a good course for its subsequent withdrawal.

1月17日，應(yīng)緬甸政府邀請我國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人出訪緬甸，此次國事訪問是否將對近期的稀土封鎖進行磋商有待跟進，但毫無疑問的是，此次出訪必然會為兩國擴大貿(mào)易合作創(chuàng)造更好的環(huán)境，緬甸稀土進口從此恢復(fù)常態(tài)亦存在可能。

On January 17th, at the invitation of the Myanmar government, Chinese leaders visited Myanmar. Whether this state visit will discuss the recent rare earth blockade remains to be followed up. But there is no doubt that it will definitely expand trade cooperation between the two countries and create a better environment. It is also possible for Myanmar's rare earth imports to return to normal.

節(jié)后預(yù)判：除去政策因素影響，節(jié)后初期走勢將維持短暫現(xiàn)狀，但依然偏向于買方市場，走勢有一定的下滑風(fēng)險?；谀壳扮掆S處于較低水平，成本壓力較大，下滑空間必然不大，整體應(yīng)保持弱穩(wěn)。其他重稀土產(chǎn)品亦會受鐠釹影響。（瑞道稀土資訊）

Pre-holiday prediction: Excluding the influence of policy factors, the initial trend after the holiday will remain short-term, but it is still biased towards the buyer's market, and the trend has certain downside risks. Based on the current low level of PrNd, the cost pressure is large, and the downside is bound to be small. The whole should remain weak and stable. Other heavy rare earth products will also be affected by PrNd. (Ruidow Rare Earth Information)

南方稀土發(fā)布1月13日稀土氧化物掛牌價

Listing price on Jan. 13th from China South Rare Earth

單位：萬元/噸（出廠含稅價）

Unit: 10,000RMB/Ton (EXW price incl. VAT)

3.       趨勢圖（參考亞洲金屬網(wǎng)）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)

2020年1月17日

提示：以上信息僅供參考！

Notes: the information above is for reference only!